34% monsoon deficit, bleak August outlook set alarm bells ringing in Kerala

A woman and her children during rain in Thiruvananthapuram. | Photo Credit: FILE Photo As the southwest monsoon has crossed the halfway mark, Kerala is staring at a bleak season, with rainfall recording a deficit of around 34% during the first two months of the four-month monsoon season. The first two months typically account for around 65% of the total seasonal rainfall. However, by the end of July, the State had received only 853.8 mm of rainfall against the normal 1,301.7 mm for the period, a deficit of 34%.Adding to the concern, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall for Kerala in August, which typically receives an average of 445.2 mm of rainfall during a normal monsoon, followed by 271.7 mm in September. This means that only an exceptionally large surplus in August and September could offset the deficit recorded during the peak monsoon months of June and July.If the latest forecast and prevailing synoptic conditions are any indication, the State appears to be heading towards a drought year, particularly if the monsoon remains weak in August and September. Global weather models and prevailing synoptic conditions are not favourable for any significant enhancement of rainfall over Kerala during August.Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, said that after two days of moderate to heavy rainfall, the monsoon is expected to slip into a lull phase. It is likely to show brief signs of revival towards the end of the first week of August, coinciding with the formation of a low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. However, the anticipated position and track of the system are not favourable for any substantial increase in rainfall over Kerala. After this, the State is likely to witness a relatively prolonged dry spell, she said.In addition, the expected peak of El Niño, the periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that tends to weaken the Indian monsoon, during August and September, coupled with the persistence of neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, has diminished the prospects of good monsoon rainfall during the remainder of the season. There is a slight possibility that the IOD could turn positive towards the end of September, which could improve monsoon prospects. However, it remains to be seen whether it would be strong enough to minimise the impact of the anticipated strong El Niño, Ms. Gopal said.During the last El Niño year (2023–24), India, including Kerala, witnessed one of the driest Augusts on record. Kerala received only 86 mm of rainfall against the normal 445.2 mm during the month. The summer that followed also witnessed record-breaking temperatures, with Kerala experiencing a heat wave for the first time in its recorded history. Published - July 31, 2026 08:02 pm IST