2027 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

For the 23rd consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction, as well as MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Batters When it came to projecting the Pittsburgh Pirates’ 2026 season, ZiPS was grumpier than most other public systems and the FanGraphs staff, forecasting the team for just a 79-83 record in the final preseason standings. The Pirates beat that mark by three wins, finishing at 82-80, for the team’s first winning record since 2018. Unfortunately, that wasn’t enough, as the Pirates finished six back (realistically seven because of tiebreakers) of the Philadelphia Phillies, who grabbed the National League’s final Wild Card spot. However, despite not having snuck into October the way that many thought they would, ZiPS likes the Pirates significantly more this time around. Some of that comes down to the offense, much of which is a lot less risky than it was entering last season. Konnor Griffin wasn’t an immediate superstar — he missed time with a right forearm injury and a torn sagittal band in his left hand (a body part I had never even heard of until the shortstop’s injury), and was merely pretty good when available — but he’s certainly more established than he was a year ago, and the crazy upside remains. Oneil Cruz also missed time with injury (a broken hand), but the 132 wRC+ he put up in 97 games was a seasonal best, and a big jump from the troubling 85 he posted in 2025. Going through the rest of the lineup, there really isn’t much to hate, though there isn’t much to absolutely love, either. ZiPS still sees age as a big downside risk for Bryan Reynolds and isn’t (yet) buying Esmerlyn Valdez as a 130 wRC+ guy. I think re-signing Brandon Lowe would be a pretty big deal for this team, as he still gets the best WAR projection of anyone on the offense. As with the Brewers, ZiPS believes that Pittsburgh has good depth in the upper minors, though the Pirates lack bonafide future stars on the level of Jesús Made. The projections suggest that the team would be best-served by letting Murf Gray seize the third base job as soon as possible. Plus, Murf Gray sounds like the name of an 1880s superstar who tried to run over Arlie Latham in a Flocken Elektrowagen. Given their good second- and third-tier talent, if the Pirates are willing to spend some money this offseason — not always a given — I hope they concentrate it in one or two good players rather than spreading it around to veteran memberberries as they have in recent years. I’m just not sure what signing Andrew McCutchen (sorry), Carlos Santana, Marcell Ozuna, or Tommy Pham could have realistically accomplished. If you want to crib from the Brewers, sign a reclamation projection or an interesting 28-year-old, and try to catch lightning in a bottle rather than buying a bottle that’s already free of electricity. Pitchers ZiPS sees the Pirates with a middle-tier offense, but it really likes the pitching staff. I can’t exactly claim that the system is going out on a projection limb, however; our Depth Charts, which are currently Steamer-based, have the Pirates as the game’s no. 3 pitching staff by WAR, behind just the Phillies and Dodgers. Paul Skenes will very likely have a better 2027, and you know you’re a good pitcher when people are down on a 4.2-WAR season. Braxton Ashcraft is a perfect no. 2 starter, and ZiPS puts Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler both safely over the 100 ERA+ line. Even Mitch Keller’s 4.50 projected ERA is a good bit better than his disappointing 2026, and certainly better than par for the fifth-best starter in your rotation. The bullpen isn’t full of name-brand relievers, but ZiPS still pegs the group as easily among the top 10 in baseball. Mason Montgomery is terrific, and Luke Weaver should be better than he was in his brief Pirates stint this summer. ZiPS thinks Carmen Mlodzinski is just as good as Weaver when used as a reliever, and when deployed exclusively in relief, ZiPS sees the whole ‘pen with ERAs in the 3.00s until you get to Antwone Kelly and Evan Sisk, and even they just barely land on the wrong side of 4.00. Seth Hernandez probably isn’t ready just yet, but ZiPS sees Hunter Barco, Connor Wietgrefe, and Khristian Curtis as reasonable back-end fill-ins, and possibly more if they hit their upside. It’s still early, but as they’re constructed right now, ZiPS sees the Pirates as being in a strong position to make a Wild Card run, even though they’re a tier down from the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here. Size of player names is very roughly proportional to Depth Chart playing time. The final team projections may differ considerably from our Depth Chart playing time. Batters – Advanced Player PA BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP Def WAR wOBA 3YOPS+ RC Brandon Lowe 589 .248 .319 .446 108 .198 .314 7 3.5 .331 103 75 Oneil Cruz 516 .255 .343 .468 121 .213 .342 -1 3.4 .349 121 80 Konnor Griffin 469 .271 .335 .425 108 .153 .342 2 3.1 .333 112 69 Nick Gonzales 558 .278 .335 .404 103 .126 .332 0 2.3 .325 100 71 Esmerlyn Valdez 536 .240 .336 .456 116 .216 .311 -3 1.8 .344 122 72 Murf Gray 572 .246 .316 .392 94 .146 .307 0 1.7 .312 96 64 Spencer Horwitz 497 .267 .356 .413 112 .146 .307 1 1.7 .339 109 64 Bryan Reynolds 640 .257 .344 .417 109 .160 .326 -5 1.7 .334 102 82 Duce Gourson 506 .232 .325 .355 88 .123 .317 2 1.6 .305 91 57 Jared Triolo 404 .246 .323 .352 87 .106 .311 3 1.3 .302 88 44 Rafael Flores Jr. 488 .248 .320 .398 97 .150 .328 -9 1.2 .316 96 56 Ronny Simon 523 .272 .338 .383 99 .111 .329 1 1.2 .319 99 68 Henry Davis 340 .222 .309 .387 91 .165 .262 -1 1.2 .307 92 37 Jake Mangum 441 .277 .322 .370 91 .093 .336 6 1.1 .306 89 55 Axiel Plaz 403 .245 .305 .360 83 .114 .298 0 1.1 .295 87 41 Davis Wendzel 345 .213 .299 .367 83 .154 .248 1 1.0 .296 79 34 Wyatt Sanford 368 .223 .307 .348 80 .125 .359 -2 0.9 .294 88 38 Akil Baddoo 396 .234 .311 .396 94 .162 .300 -3 0.9 .310 94 47 Marcell Ozuna 453 .240 .329 .407 102 .167 .299 0 0.9 .323 93 53 Edward Florentino 470 .212 .294 .378 84 .166 .280 2 0.9 .296 92 50 Ryan O’Hearn 451 .261 .333 .412 104 .151 .310 -1 0.9 .326 99 56 Enmanuel Valdez 446 .241 .305 .407 94 .166 .273 5 0.8 .310 92 51 Jack Brannigan 368 .207 .286 .351 75 .143 .306 2 0.8 .283 78 34 Easton Carmichael 486 .240 .276 .355 72 .115 .289 3 0.8 .277 74 48 Termarr Johnson 486 .219 .306 .322 74 .104 .284 4 0.7 .283 79 47 Nick Yorke 458 .252 .313 .361 85 .108 .319 -2 0.7 .299 85 51 Jhostynxon Garcia 441 .240 .293 .388 86 .148 .308 -3 0.6 .298 91 48 Mitch Jebb 417 .255 .316 .362 87 .106 .296 -4 0.5 .298 85 46 Richard Ramirez 361 .222 .266 .349 68 .127 .321 2 0.4 .270 75 32 Jacob Gonzalez 506 .228 .288 .359 77 .131 .264 -1 0.4 .285 79 50 Keiner Delgado 521 .216 .293 .313 68 .097 .278 3 0.4 .274 73 47 Billy Cook 390 .235 .299 .365 82 .130 .315 -4 0.4 .294 83 43 Derek Berg 374 .211 .274 .329 66 .119 .332 2 0.4 .267 70 31 Tyler Callihan 441 .231 .296 .363 81 .132 .310 -3 0.3 .290 82 46 Yordany De Los Santos 477 .226 .272 .350 70 .124 .329 0 0.3 .273 74 51 Endy Rodríguez 321 .235 .315 .375 90 .140 .288 1 0.3 .306 91 35 Christian Bethancourt 241 .218 .256 .356 67 .138 .271 1 0.2 .267 62 21 Josh Tate 442 .241 .285 .330 69 .089 .343 4 0.2 .272 73 44 Matt King 312 .230 .315 .267 63 .037 .284 -1 0.2 .270 63 25 Lonnie White Jr. 453 .213 .294 .361 80 .149 .320 -6 0.1 .292 85 46 Grae Kessinger 251 .192 .280 .279 55 .087 .265 2 0.0 .256 56 18 Joshua Palacios 252 .242 .307 .370 86 .128 .296 -1 0.0 .299 84 27 Cameron Barstad 249 .202 .278 .318 64 .117 .333 -2 0.0 .269 67 20 Jose Herrera 220 .209 .293 .283 60 .073 .268 -1 0.0 .264 57 16 Javier Rivas 416 .219 .256 .339 63 .120 .307 5 -0.1 .261 67 35 Robert Hassell III 446 .240 .301 .326 73 .086 .320 -3 -0.1 .280 75 44 Kyler Fedko 403 .218 .298 .366 82 .148 .271 -8 -0.2 .294 83 42 Jared R. Jones 376 .238 .298 .374 84 .136 .352 -1 -0.2 .297 87 38 Nick Cimillo 410 .209 .278 .401 84 .192 .264 0 -0.2 .295 85 42 Camden Janik 205 .238 .322 .309 76 .072 .293 -1 -0.2 .287 80 19 Will Taylor 445 .220 .292 .344 75 .124 .313 -5 -0.3 .284 79 45 Dylan Palmer 471 .252 .302 .320 72 .068 .310 -3 -0.3 .278 74 50 Tony Blanco Jr. 337 .219 .279 .377 79 .158 .317 0 -0.4 .287 87 33 Callan Moss 528 .239 .299 .353 79 .114 .321 1 -0.4 .289 82 53 Ryan McCarty 358 .211 .291 .299 64 .088 .289 -2 -0.4 .268 63 31 P.J. Hilson 285 .207 .256 .307 55 .100 .283 -1 -0.6 .250 58 23 Samuel Escudero 110 .170 .236 .270 39 .100 .231 0 -0.6 .229 48 6 Carlos Caro 286 .213 .287 .291 61 .079 .319 -4 -0.7 .263 65 23 Mike Jarvis 221 .185 .243 .255 38 .070 .267 4 -0.8 .226 38 15 Jesus Castillo 397 .225 .285 .278 56 .053 .303 7 -0.8 .256 60 32 Brenden Dixon 199 .180 .254 .292 50 .112 .264 0 -0.9 .246 58 14 Titus Dumitru 478 .208 .272 .334 66 .126 .274 1 -1.0 .269 69 43 Ivan Brethowr 325 .174 .280 .266 52 .092 .284 -1 -1.1 .254 56 23 Jhonny Severino 496 .212 .249 .340 61 .128 .273 -3 -1.1 .258 69 43 Eddie King Jr. 501 .206 .307 .280 64 .074 .282 -2 -1.2 .271 69 39 Shalin Polanco 380 .187 .249 .304 52 .117 .277 2 -1.5 .245 55 28 Batters – Top Near-Age Offensive Comps Batters – 80th/20th Percentiles Player 80th BA 80th OBP 80th SLG 80th OPS+ 80th WAR 20th BA 20th OBP 20th SLG 20th OPS+ 20th WAR Brandon Lowe .273 .344 .495 129 5.0 .224 .295 .394 91 2.2 Oneil Cruz .283 .369 .533 144 5.0 .229 .313 .415 100 2.0 Konnor Griffin .306 .369 .489 131 4.5 .245 .313 .382 91 1.9 Nick Gonzales .304 .362 .443 122 3.6 .247 .305 .360 84 0.9 Esmerlyn Valdez .271 .366 .520 142 3.5 .213 .308 .399 97 0.6 Murf Gray .270 .342 .447 115 3.2 .216 .289 .345 76 0.4 Spencer Horwitz .292 .380 .462 129 2.8 .239 .328 .369 93 0.6 Bryan Reynolds .283 .368 .465 126 3.0 .228 .315 .364 89 0.0 Duce Gourson .260 .350 .409 107 2.8 .210 .304 .315 72 0.6 Jared Triolo .273 .348 .401 105 2.3 .218 .293 .311 68 0.4 Rafael Flores Jr. .276 .348 .452 117 2.5 .215 .290 .348 77 0.0 Ronny Simon .302 .367 .433 119 2.4 .242 .309 .343 80 0.0 Henry Davis .253 .340 .446 114 2.2 .194 .280 .331 68 0.3 Jake Mangum .309 .354 .413 111 2.3 .249 .297 .331 74 0.2 Axiel Plaz .274 .332 .404 101 2.0 .215 .277 .319 64 0.1 Davis Wendzel .242 .327 .417 102 1.8 .186 .272 .324 63 0.1 Wyatt Sanford .252 .337 .410 104 2.1 .195 .281 .298 60 0.0 Akil Baddoo .259 .341 .449 113 1.8 .205 .280 .346 70 -0.2 Marcell Ozuna .266 .356 .456 120 1.9 .217 .303 .358 84 -0.1 Edward Florentino .241 .318 .431 104 2.0 .189 .268 .331 67 -0.2 Ryan O’Hearn .286 .356 .455 120 1.8 .232 .303 .363 83 -0.3 Enmanuel Valdez .266 .330 .450 113 1.9 .215 .279 .357 77 -0.2 Jack Brannigan .233 .312 .405 94 1.7 .179 .258 .296 54 -0.1 Easton Carmichael .270 .300 .410 92 2.0 .212 .246 .313 53 -0.4 Termarr Johnson .250 .330 .369 94 1.9 .195 .279 .286 58 -0.3 Nick Yorke .276 .338 .401 101 1.6 .223 .284 .322 67 -0.3 Jhostynxon Garcia .265 .320 .433 103 1.5 .210 .267 .343 67 -0.5 Mitch Jebb .287 .343 .410 107 1.5 .227 .287 .317 69 -0.4 Richard Ramirez .251 .293 .393 88 1.3 .192 .238 .300 49 -0.5 Jacob Gonzalez .253 .314 .404 96 1.6 .199 .263 .312 59 -0.8 Keiner Delgado .244 .321 .362 85 1.5 .190 .268 .273 50 -0.8 Billy Cook .263 .328 .419 101 1.3 .206 .270 .321 59 -0.8 Derek Berg .241 .303 .375 83 1.2 .181 .246 .282 46 -0.5 Tyler Callihan .264 .325 .418 103 1.6 .206 .266 .320 64 -0.6 Yordany De Los Santos .252 .303 .408 93 1.7 .197 .246 .311 54 -0.9 Endy Rodríguez .262 .343 .430 109 1.0 .207 .288 .332 72 -0.4 Christian Bethancourt .245 .283 .414 89 0.9 .191 .232 .304 48 -0.4 Josh Tate .267 .309 .377 86 1.2 .215 .260 .291 53 -0.7 Matt King .255 .340 .294 77 0.8 .199 .289 .229 46 -0.5 Lonnie White Jr. .243 .321 .415 98 1.1 .186 .269 .320 61 -0.9 Grae Kessinger .220 .313 .323 75 0.7 .161 .252 .231 36 -0.6 Joshua Palacios .272 .338 .423 106 0.6 .213 .277 .318 65 -0.7 Cameron Barstad .233 .309 .369 83 0.6 .169 .246 .267 42 -0.7 Jose Herrera .246 .326 .330 81 0.5 .179 .259 .241 42 -0.6 Javier Rivas .242 .278 .387 81 0.9 .195 .230 .294 45 -1.0 Robert Hassell III .269 .331 .363 90 0.8 .218 .276 .291 58 -1.0 Kyler Fedko .241 .322 .411 102 0.8 .191 .268 .317 62 -1.2 Jared R. Jones .269 .328 .423 105 0.8 .205 .267 .326 64 -1.2 Nick Cimillo .235 .305 .453 103 0.8 .185 .256 .352 66 -1.1 Camden Janik .270 .350 .346 93 0.2 .208 .293 .268 59 -0.7 Will Taylor .246 .317 .388 92 0.8 .194 .270 .308 60 -1.0 Dylan Palmer .280 .329 .362 91 0.9 .227 .278 .285 57 -1.2 Tony Blanco Jr. .249 .309 .425 100 0.5 .195 .254 .322 59 -1.3 Callan Moss .263 .326 .398 96 0.7 .210 .273 .311 60 -1.7 Ryan McCarty .239 .323 .344 84 0.5 .183 .266 .255 46 -1.1 P.J. Hilson .240 .289 .366 77 0.2 .182 .228 .274 38 -1.2 Samuel Escudero .200 .262 .321 59 -0.4 .146 .208 .225 20 -0.9 Carlos Caro .241 .316 .335 78 0.0 .187 .261 .253 42 -1.3 Mike Jarvis .212 .269 .293 56 -0.3 .163 .216 .221 22 -1.3 Jesus Castillo .256 .313 .313 74 0.1 .200 .256 .244 40 -1.6 Brenden Dixon .209 .285 .340 71 -0.4 .154 .224 .243 32 -1.3 Titus Dumitru .237 .298 .380 85 0.1 .184 .248 .289 50 -2.0 Ivan Brethowr .200 .310 .304 69 -0.3 .149 .253 .226 35 -1.7 Jhonny Severino .240 .277 .394 80 0.2 .187 .226 .297 43 -2.2 Eddie King Jr. .235 .335 .324 81 -0.1 .177 .283 .240 46 -2.3 Shalin Polanco .212 .275 .344 69 -0.6 .164 .224 .263 35 -2.3 Batters – Platoon Splits Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R Brandon Lowe .231 .293 .410 .253 .328 .458 Oneil Cruz .239 .325 .420 .262 .351 .489 Konnor Griffin .276 .345 .441 .269 .331 .418 Nick Gonzales .285 .346 .430 .274 .330 .391 Esmerlyn Valdez .246 .346 .493 .237 .332 .441 Murf Gray .252 .328 .400 .243 .312 .388 Spencer Horwitz .250 .338 .364 .275 .365 .436 Bryan Reynolds .261 .339 .424 .255 .346 .414 Duce Gourson .218 .314 .311 .238 .329 .372 Jared Triolo .252 .333 .362 .242 .318 .346 Rafael Flores Jr. .248 .325 .407 .248 .318 .394 Ronny Simon .272 .335 .384 .272 .340 .383 Henry Davis .232 .321 .400 .218 .303 .381 Jake Mangum .275 .314 .383 .278 .326 .363 Axiel Plaz .252 .316 .388 .242 .301 .348 Davis Wendzel .222 .309 .389 .208 .293 .355 Wyatt Sanford .212 .302 .341 .226 .309 .350 Akil Baddoo .224 .287 .353 .237 .319 .410 Marcell Ozuna .240 .333 .406 .240 .327 .407 Edward Florentino .204 .278 .359 .215 .299 .385 Ryan O’Hearn .241 .304 .361 .266 .340 .425 Enmanuel Valdez .227 .286 .359 .247 .314 .429 Jack Brannigan .207 .288 .380 .208 .285 .339 Easton Carmichael .241 .282 .362 .240 .273 .352 Termarr Johnson .215 .294 .308 .220 .309 .327 Nick Yorke .246 .308 .354 .255 .315 .364 Jhostynxon Garcia .252 .310 .437 .235 .287 .371 Mitch Jebb .247 .308 .351 .258 .318 .366 Richard Ramirez .219 .269 .333 .223 .265 .355 Jacob Gonzalez .220 .285 .339 .230 .290 .366 Keiner Delgado .216 .298 .304 .216 .291 .317 Billy Cook .241 .306 .384 .232 .295 .357 Derek Berg .218 .279 .347 .208 .271 .322 Tyler Callihan .225 .282 .333 .234 .301 .376 Yordany De Los Santos .232 .276 .360 .223 .270 .346 Endy Rodríguez .245 .316 .382 .230 .314 .372 Christian Bethancourt .229 .280 .357 .213 .245 .355 Josh Tate .248 .298 .331 .238 .279 .330 Matt King .239 .327 .284 .225 .309 .258 Lonnie White Jr. .217 .302 .365 .211 .291 .360 Grae Kessinger .203 .289 .291 .186 .275 .271 Joshua Palacios .239 .307 .328 .244 .307 .388 Cameron Barstad .190 .271 .286 .206 .281 .331 Jose Herrera .210 .290 .306 .209 .295 .271 Javier Rivas .212 .248 .347 .223 .260 .336 Robert Hassell III .230 .293 .295 .245 .304 .339 Kyler Fedko .220 .307 .366 .217 .293 .366 Jared R. Jones .250 .316 .404 .232 .290 .361 Nick Cimillo .215 .292 .411 .206 .272 .397 Camden Janik .250 .333 .339 .232 .317 .296 Will Taylor .224 .300 .345 .219 .289 .344 Dylan Palmer .239 .286 .291 .257 .309 .331 Tony Blanco Jr. .227 .292 .375 .216 .274 .378 Callan Moss .241 .306 .372 .237 .296 .344 Ryan McCarty .215 .295 .290 .209 .290 .302 P.J. Hilson .213 .264 .325 .204 .253 .298 Samuel Escudero .161 .212 .290 .174 .247 .261 Carlos Caro .214 .295 .314 .212 .284 .283 Mike Jarvis .185 .250 .262 .185 .240 .252 Jesus Castillo .231 .288 .287 .222 .284 .274 Brenden Dixon .185 .267 .278 .177 .248 .298 Titus Dumitru .212 .281 .348 .207 .268 .328 Ivan Brethowr .176 .286 .271 .173 .278 .264 Jhonny Severino .225 .263 .380 .207 .244 .325 Eddie King Jr. .206 .313 .286 .206 .305 .278 Shalin Polanco .188 .247 .306 .187 .249 .304 Pitchers – Standard Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO Paul Skenes R 25 12 7 3.19 31 31 172.0 142 61 17 47 190 Braxton Ashcraft R 27 10 8 3.54 29 25 150.0 140 59 18 36 149 Bubba Chandler R 24 8 8 4.02 28 27 143.3 129 64 15 60 133 Jared Jones R 25 7 6 3.76 26 26 122.0 108 51 15 39 128 Carmen Mlodzinski R 28 8 6 3.66 38 12 113.0 111 46 10 39 94 Connor Wietgrefe L 25 7 7 4.37 27 26 129.7 139 63 17 39 90 Mason Montgomery L 27 5 4 3.20 57 9 76.0 61 27 8 29 100 Mitch Keller R 31 8 9 4.50 26 26 140.0 143 70 19 44 115 Wilber Dotel R 24 6 8 4.50 31 15 92.0 94 46 12 36 77 Thomas Harrington R 25 4 6 4.67 27 16 98.3 106 51 14 31 72 Luke Weaver R 33 3 3 3.86 48 4 65.3 60 28 8 21 67 Antwone Kelly R 23 4 5 4.65 28 18 100.7 103 52 13 39 76 Hunter Barco L 26 4 6 4.69 26 16 88.3 89 46 11 40 74 Khristian Curtis R 25 5 6 4.77 25 18 94.3 95 50 13 44 80 Lake Bachar R 32 3 3 4.09 48 7 72.7 66 33 11 31 75 Nick Dombkowski L 28 5 7 4.71 31 14 91.7 100 48 13 32 65 Peyton Stumbo R 25 5 7 4.98 24 20 103.0 116 57 14 36 65 Derek Diamond R 26 4 5 4.48 30 8 66.3 74 33 9 17 45 Mike Clevinger R 36 4 4 4.67 22 14 69.3 74 36 10 28 52 Sean Sullivan R 26 3 4 4.64 22 11 66.0 71 34 9 24 47 Gregory Soto L 32 5 3 3.72 61 0 55.7 48 23 5 24 65 Yohan Ramírez R 32 4 5 4.02 55 1 69.3 58 31 6 32 78 Brandon Eisert L 29 4 4 4.06 57 5 62.0 61 28 8 22 62 Evan Sisk L 30 2 2 4.06 57 1 62.0 57 28 6 31 63 Kirby Yates R 40 4 3 4.05 51 1 46.7 40 21 5 22 48 Matt Ager R 24 4 6 5.29 22 18 102.0 117 60 15 37 57 Dominic Perachi L 26 2 4 5.13 15 13 59.7 67 34 8 26 37 Noah Murdock R 28 2 3 4.44 38 3 48.7 46 24 5 25 47 Po-Yu Chen R 25 4 6 5.27 21 18 82.0 91 48 12 35 55 Connor Oliver L 26 4 7 5.26 24 17 90.7 95 53 13 51 70 Brandon Neeck L 27 4 4 4.50 38 2 56.0 52 28 7 32 58 Joshua Loeschorn R 27 2 3 4.77 26 4 54.7 59 29 8 18 38 Tyler Owens R 26 3 4 4.47 38 2 48.3 52 24 6 19 35 Michael Walsh R 26 2 2 4.41 36 1 49.0 52 24 6 15 36 Michael Darrell-Hicks R 29 2 3 4.75 36 3 53.0 54 28 7 22 45 Beau Burrows R 30 4 5 4.86 42 3 53.7 56 29 7 23 41 Alessandro Ercolani R 23 3 4 5.43 22 11 61.3 67 37 8 28 37 Noah Davis R 30 3 7 5.57 25 18 95.3 105 59 14 42 69 Dominic Pipkin R 27 2 3 5.40 20 9 35.0 36 21 5 24 28 Justin Meis R 27 2 2 4.96 42 2 61.7 64 34 9 31 48 Cristhian Tortosa L 28 2 2 4.87 31 1 40.7 38 22 5 27 41 Andrew Moore R 27 1 2 4.91 33 0 40.3 36 22 5 28 42 Yunior Marte R 32 1 3 4.80 30 0 30.0 33 16 4 15 28 Jake Shirk R 25 4 4 4.88 38 1 59.0 66 32 8 20 35 Cy Nielson L 26 2 4 4.84 38 0 61.3 62 33 7 29 50 Emmanuel Chapman R 28 2 4 5.51 30 4 50.7 53 31 7 31 39 Tyrone Yulie R 25 2 3 6.03 18 5 34.3 38 23 6 22 25 Jaycob Deese R 27 3 4 4.97 34 0 54.3 63 30 8 20 32 Landon Tomkins R 27 3 5 5.28 40 1 59.7 68 35 8 30 34 Pitchers – Advanced Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BB% K% BABIP ERA+ 3ERA+ FIP ERA- WAR Paul Skenes 172.0 9.9 2.5 0.9 6.7% 27.3% .286 135 133 3.16 74 4.2 Braxton Ashcraft 150.0 8.9 2.2 1.1 5.8% 24.0% .295 122 121 3.56 82 3.2 Bubba Chandler 143.3 8.4 3.8 0.9 9.7% 21.6% .286 107 110 4.11 93 2.3 Jared Jones 122.0 9.4 2.9 1.1 7.7% 25.1% .290 114 113 3.75 87 2.3 Carmen Mlodzinski 113.0 7.5 3.1 0.8 8.0% 19.3% .298 118 117 3.77 85 2.1 Connor Wietgrefe 129.7 6.2 2.7 1.2 7.0% 16.0% .297 98 102 4.43 102 1.6 Mason Montgomery 76.0 11.8 3.4 0.9 9.1% 31.3% .299 135 137 3.18 74 1.6 Mitch Keller 140.0 7.4 2.8 1.2 7.3% 19.0% .297 96 94 4.40 105 1.6 Wilber Dotel 92.0 7.5 3.5 1.2 8.8% 18.9% .297 96 100 4.54 105 1.0 Thomas Harrington 98.3 6.6 2.8 1.3 7.2% 16.7% .297 92 96 4.63 108 0.9 Luke Weaver 65.3 9.2 2.9 1.1 7.7% 24.5% .295 112 107 3.74 90 0.9 Antwone Kelly 100.7 6.8 3.5 1.2 8.8% 17.1% .292 93 97 4.71 108 0.8 Hunter Barco 88.3 7.5 4.1 1.1 10.1% 18.6% .296 92 94 4.75 109 0.8 Khristian Curtis 94.3 7.6 4.2 1.2 10.5% 19.0% .294 90 95 4.80 111 0.8 Lake Bachar 72.7 9.3 3.8 1.4 10.0% 24.3% .290 105 101 4.45 95 0.8 Nick Dombkowski 91.7 6.4 3.1 1.3 7.9% 16.1% .298 91 92 4.68 109 0.7 Peyton Stumbo 103.0 5.7 3.1 1.2 7.8% 14.1% .299 86 90 4.90 116 0.6 Derek Diamond 66.3 6.1 2.3 1.2 5.9% 15.5% .300 96 100 4.46 104 0.6 Mike Clevinger 69.3 6.8 3.6 1.3 9.1% 16.9% .300 92 84 4.86 109 0.6 Sean Sullivan 66.0 6.4 3.3 1.2 8.2% 16.1% .298 93 96 4.72 108 0.6 Gregory Soto 55.7 10.5 3.9 0.8 9.9% 26.7% .302 116 110 3.59 86 0.6 Yohan Ramírez 69.3 10.1 4.2 0.8 10.5% 25.5% .294 107 103 4.01 93 0.6 Brandon Eisert 62.0 9.0 3.2 1.2 8.2% 23.0% .303 106 105 3.98 94 0.6 Evan Sisk 62.0 9.1 4.5 0.9 11.3% 22.9% .299 106 104 4.16 94 0.5 Kirby Yates 46.7 9.3 4.2 1.0 11.1% 24.2% .293 106 103 4.09 94 0.4 Matt Ager 102.0 5.0 3.3 1.3 8.0% 12.4% .295 81 86 5.23 123 0.3 Dominic Perachi 59.7 5.6 3.9 1.2 9.5% 13.6% .298 84 87 5.21 119 0.3 Noah Murdock 48.7 8.7 4.6 0.9 11.4% 21.5% .299 97 97 4.40 103 0.3 Po-Yu Chen 82.0 6.0 3.8 1.3 9.3% 14.6% .298 82 86 5.32 122 0.3 Connor Oliver 90.7 6.9 5.1 1.3 12.2% 16.7% .297 82 85 5.35 122 0.2 Brandon Neeck 56.0 9.3 5.1 1.1 12.5% 22.7% .297 96 98 4.68 105 0.2 Joshua Loeschorn 54.7 6.3 3.0 1.3 7.5% 15.8% .296 90 92 4.92 111 0.2 Tyler Owens 48.3 6.5 3.5 1.1 8.8% 16.3% .299 96 98 4.55 104 0.2 Michael Walsh 49.0 6.6 2.8 1.1 7.0% 16.7% .296 98 100 4.43 102 0.2 Michael Darrell-Hicks 53.0 7.6 3.7 1.2 9.3% 19.0% .298 91 91 4.75 110 0.2 Beau Burrows 53.7 6.9 3.9 1.2 9.6% 17.2% .297 89 89 4.77 113 0.1 Alessandro Ercolani 61.3 5.4 4.1 1.2 10.0% 13.2% .291 79 85 5.35 126 0.0 Noah Davis 95.3 6.5 4.0 1.3 9.5% 15.7% .301 77 77 5.34 129 0.0 Dominic Pipkin 35.0 7.2 6.2 1.3 14.5% 17.0% .296 80 82 5.63 125 0.0 Justin Meis 61.7 7.0 4.5 1.3 11.2% 17.3% .296 87 89 5.14 115 0.0 Cristhian Tortosa 40.7 9.1 6.0 1.1 14.4% 21.9% .296 88 89 5.01 113 -0.1 Andrew Moore 40.3 9.4 6.2 1.1 15.1% 22.6% .294 88 92 5.05 114 -0.1 Yunior Marte 30.0 8.4 4.5 1.2 10.6% 19.9% .312 90 85 4.71 111 -0.1 Jake Shirk 59.0 5.3 3.1 1.2 7.5% 13.2% .295 88 91 4.99 113 -0.1 Cy Nielson 61.3 7.3 4.3 1.0 10.4% 18.0% .297 89 93 4.81 112 -0.1 Emmanuel Chapman 50.7 6.9 5.5 1.2 13.0% 16.4% .297 78 81 5.53 128 -0.2 Tyrone Yulie 34.3 6.6 5.8 1.6 13.5% 15.3% .295 71 77 6.15 140 -0.2 Jaycob Deese 54.3 5.3 3.3 1.3 8.1% 13.0% .300 87 87 5.15 115 -0.2 Landon Tomkins 59.7 5.1 4.5 1.2 10.8% 12.2% .298 82 83 5.56 123 -0.4 Pitchers – Top Near-Age Comps Pitchers – Splits and Percentiles Player BA vs. L OBP vs. L SLG vs. L BA vs. R OBP vs. R SLG vs. R 80th WAR 20th WAR 80th ERA 20th ERA Paul Skenes .225 .290 .362 .217 .267 .340 5.4 3.1 2.62 3.76 Braxton Ashcraft .235 .289 .402 .247 .292 .383 4.2 2.3 2.98 4.10 Bubba Chandler .248 .339 .396 .224 .302 .357 3.2 1.2 3.58 4.68 Jared Jones .225 .305 .366 .239 .293 .398 3.1 1.4 3.21 4.38 Carmen Mlodzinski .240 .303 .369 .261 .327 .385 2.7 1.3 3.18 4.32 Connor Wietgrefe .275 .339 .439 .264 .311 .428 2.3 0.9 3.93 4.93 Mason Montgomery .193 .284 .265 .222 .296 .379 2.4 0.8 2.47 4.07 Mitch Keller .268 .332 .442 .252 .313 .411 2.2 0.6 4.03 5.24 Wilber Dotel .270 .347 .448 .246 .318 .393 1.5 0.4 3.98 5.07 Thomas Harrington .277 .338 .455 .261 .318 .429 1.5 0.3 4.14 5.20 Luke Weaver .237 .305 .381 .241 .297 .398 1.5 0.3 3.01 4.89 Antwone Kelly .260 .341 .453 .258 .329 .392 1.4 0.3 4.20 5.16 Hunter Barco .260 .357 .407 .253 .339 .418 1.4 0.2 4.10 5.30 Khristian Curtis .251 .352 .421 .259 .327 .429 1.3 0.2 4.30 5.30 Lake Bachar .230 .336 .385 .248 .310 .438 1.4 0.1 3.36 5.03 Nick Dombkowski .270 .331 .444 .272 .330 .444 1.1 0.0 4.30 5.42 Peyton Stumbo .259 .333 .411 .293 .348 .473 1.2 0.1 4.50 5.45 Derek Diamond .274 .336 .444 .274 .310 .445 1.0 0.2 3.94 5.14 Mike Clevinger .265 .342 .447 .271 .338 .444 1.1 0.2 4.02 5.41 Sean Sullivan .266 .336 .430 .270 .331 .438 1.0 0.2 4.09 5.22 Gregory Soto .233 .325 .356 .221 .317 .350 1.1 -0.1 3.00 4.83 Yohan Ramírez .239 .354 .385 .212 .326 .318 1.2 -0.3 3.25 5.23 Brandon Eisert .247 .304 .376 .250 .320 .421 1.2 0.1 3.27 4.96 Evan Sisk .200 .294 .284 .266 .369 .427 1.0 -0.2 3.29 5.06 Kirby Yates .233 .341 .384 .230 .316 .370 0.9 -0.2 3.14 5.46 Matt Ager .298 .368 .505 .268 .329 .425 0.8 -0.2 4.86 5.79 Dominic Perachi .229 .313 .386 .297 .374 .465 0.6 0.0 4.70 5.73 Noah Murdock .264 .373 .425 .225 .322 .343 0.6 -0.2 3.93 5.36 Po-Yu Chen .273 .351 .442 .274 .359 .458 0.7 -0.2 4.78 5.84 Connor Oliver .269 .377 .423 .260 .352 .446 0.7 -0.5 4.74 5.98 Brandon Neeck .228 .340 .380 .245 .350 .403 0.7 -0.3 3.79 5.31 Joshua Loeschorn .263 .330 .421 .279 .346 .467 0.5 -0.2 4.25 5.42 Tyler Owens .267 .330 .411 .267 .333 .438 0.5 0.0 3.97 4.87 Michael Walsh .312 .369 .495 .223 .289 .359 0.6 -0.1 3.78 4.99 Michael Darrell-Hicks .261 .355 .478 .256 .333 .376 0.6 -0.3 4.07 5.51 Beau Burrows .268 .351 .443 .259 .331 .414 0.5 -0.3 4.23 5.58 Alessandro Ercolani .278 .364 .443 .267 .358 .427 0.4 -0.3 4.94 6.03 Noah Davis .285 .386 .497 .262 .339 .408 0.6 -0.6 5.01 6.28 Dominic Pipkin .286 .408 .476 .237 .344 .408 0.2 -0.3 4.82 6.26 Justin Meis .261 .362 .441 .263 .340 .429 0.3 -0.5 4.45 5.71 Cristhian Tortosa .246 .361 .377 .242 .371 .421 0.3 -0.5 4.21 5.80 Andrew Moore .216 .348 .378 .250 .378 .400 0.3 -0.5 4.24 6.04 Yunior Marte .250 .344 .375 .279 .359 .485 0.2 -0.4 4.14 5.95 Jake Shirk .281 .352 .447 .270 .331 .437 0.2 -0.4 4.43 5.35 Cy Nielson .247 .356 .365 .263 .352 .429 0.4 -0.5 4.21 5.49 Emmanuel Chapman .240 .364 .420 .284 .378 .441 0.2 -0.6 4.88 6.44 Tyrone Yulie .300 .408 .533 .256 .366 .436 0.0 -0.5 5.40 7.00 Jaycob Deese .308 .381 .490 .261 .315 .429 0.0 -0.6 4.51 5.56 Landon Tomkins .288 .389 .468 .273 .353 .424 -0.1 -0.7 4.86 5.87 Players are listed with their most recent teams wherever possible. This includes players who are unsigned or have retired, players who will miss 2027 due to injury, and players who were released in 2026. So yes, if you see Joe Schmoe, who quit baseball back in August to form a Post-Industrial-Gregorian-Chant-Bubblegum-Reggaeton band that only performs at rural zoning board meetings, he’s still listed here intentionally. ZiPS is assuming a league with an ERA of 4.18. Hitters are ranked by zWAR, which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those that appear in the full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR. It is important to remember that ZiPS is agnostic about playing time, and has no information about, for example, how quickly a team will call up a prospect or what veteran has fallen into disfavor. As always, incorrect projections are either caused by misinformation, a non-pragmatic reality, or by the skillful sabotage of our friend and former editor. You can, however, still get mad at me on Twitter or on BlueSky. This last is, however, not an actual requirement.