2027 Bracketology: Preseason NCAA Tournament projections ahead of season tip-off

The college basketball season has arrived, with teams set to tip-off across the country. Throughout the preseason, many computer models have given their projection for where each team will finish, offering a base for bracketology projections ahead. The NCAA Tournament field is officially moving from 68 teams to 76 this season, leaving more room for bubble teams to enter the mix after expansion. Conference realignment has also changed the picture, with the Pac-12’s return taking the list of automatic bids from 31 back to 32. [ $19.99 gets you a FULL year of On3 | Rivals national coverage ] The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the new 76-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket. With new additions to every roster across college basketball this offseason, there are plenty changes to the outlook for March Madness. Using that information, here is a preseason look at the 2027 Bracketology field from On3. Bracketology Projected 1-line: Florida, Duke, UConn, IllinoisLast four byes: West Virginia, Clemson, Missouri, IndianaLast four in: NC State, Utah State, SMU, Ole MissFirst four out: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Oklahoma State ‘First Four’ (Dayton/Wichita) 15 Montana State (Big Sky) vs. 15 Austin Peay (UAC)15 ETSU (SoCon) vs. 15 Merrimack (Metro)16 American (Patriot) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC)16 Tennessee State (OVC) vs. 16 Arkansas State (SBC)16 Queens (ASUN) vs. 16 Long Island (NEC)16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)10 Auburn vs. 10 St. Louis11 LSU vs. 11 Utah State11 TCU vs. 11 Providence11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Cincinnati11 Baylor vs. 11 SMU12 NC State vs. 12 Ole Miss East (New York) Charlotte1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 American/Bethune Cookman8 Wisconsin vs. 9 West VirginiaSpokane5 St. John’s vs. 12 New Mexico (MWC)4 Tennessee vs. 13 Belmont (MVC)Omaha6 Miami vs. 11 LSU/Utah State3 Iowa State vs. 14 Harvard (Ivy)Louisville7 North Carolina vs. 10 Missouri2 Michigan State vs. 15 St. Thomas (Summit) 1-seed Florida Florida head coach Todd Golden reacts during the NCAA March Madness opening round at Benchmark international Arena in Tampa, FL on Friday, March 20, 2026. [Alan Youngblood/Gainesville Sun] Florida returns four starters from last season’s roster which went into the NCAA Tournament as a 1-seed, and still holds three starters from the 2025 national championship run. No team in college basketball can match that level of retention, as Todd Golden spent the offseason filling out the rotation. 2-seed Arizona Mar 20, 2026; San Diego, CA, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd reacts in the first half against the LIU Sharks during a first round game of the men’s 2026 NCAA Tournament at Viejas Arena. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images Arizona brings back two key pieces from its roster last season, hoping they can take a leap into the spotlight while surrounded with a new cast of role players with big upside. After retaining Tommy Lloyd, they got pieces in place for another run at the biggest prize in college basketball. West (Los Angeles) Louisville1 Illinois (Big Ten) vs. 16 Tennessee State/Arkansas State8 Georgia vs. 9 ClemsonMinneapolis5 Kansas vs. 12 St. Mary’s (WCC)4 Louisville vs. 13 Miami (OH) (MAC)Omaha6 Nebraska vs. 11 TCU/Providence3 Arkansas vs. 14 Liberty (CUSA)Sacramento7 Kentucky vs. 10 Indiana2 Arizona vs. 15 Montana State/Austin Peay 1-seed Michigan State Junfu Han, USA TODAY Sports Michigan State brings back plenty production from last season, adding to the mix with a combination of highly-touted recruits and a transfer addition to the frontcourt. Tom Izzo has a roster with a clear picture of what it must do, with many roles already established heading into the season. 2-seed Houston (Troy Taormina | Imagn Images) Houston comes back with another combination of transfer additions and freshman talent ready to take on big roles around an established group of role players who have developed in the system. Kelvin Sampson has consistently put his team in position to compete at the top of college basketball. Midwest (Kansas City) Charlotte1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Queens/Long Island8 Iowa vs. 9 Texas A&MSacramento5 Purdue vs. 12 NC State/Ole Miss4 Texas Tech vs. 13 McNeese State (Southland)Spokane6 UCLA vs. 11 Oklahoma/Cincinnati3 Gonzaga (Pac-12) vs. 14 Utah Valley (Big West)Fort Worth7 Villanova vs. 10 VCU (A10)2 Texas vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon) 1-seed Duke Feb 14, 2026; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Florida Gators head coach Todd Golden gestures with a Gator Chomp against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O’Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images Duke has one of the deepest teams in college basketball entering the season, with big potential to separate itself from the field. Jon Scheyer retains solid pieces, then hit the recruiting trail and transfer portal for even more talent to sort through as players battle for minutes and develop into stars. 2-seed Texas © Eakin Howard-Imagn Images Texas has level up its talent this offseason, building around the strengths of last season’s roster with a highly-ranked transfer portal class and a group of freshman talent. The new-look group has the capability to lift the ceiling for Sean Miller this season’s March Madness run. South (San Antonio) Pittsburgh1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Vermont/Howard8 BYU vs. 9 USCMinneapolis5 Michigan vs. 12 Wichita State (American)4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point (Big South)Pittsburgh6 Vanderbilt vs. 11 Baylor/SMU3 Virginia vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (CAA)Fort Worth7 Ohio State vs. 10 Auburn/St. Louis2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU/Merrimack 1-seed UConn Dan Hurley advanced to the national championship game against Michigan. (Photo by Bob Donnan-Imagn Images) UConn was able to bring back key pieces from the backcourt, setting up another strong season with transfers and freshmen ready to fill the gaps in the frontcourt and bench roles. Dan Hurley looks to get his team back to the top after back-to-back championships just a few seasons ago. 2-seed Illinois Matt Krohn | USA TODAY Sports Illinois tapped every form of roster-building this offseason, bringing back many versatile players from last season along with a batch of transfer additions and freshman talent capable of replacing or covering that lost. For Brad Underwood, it is another strong offseason as he looks to break through in the postseason.