2026 Trade Value: Introduction and Honorable Mentions

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports The concept of trade likely predates written history. If one person has a thing, and another person has a different thing, you better believe that they’re both thinking about whether they’d be better off by swapping those things. That means that the concept of value is almost as old; if things can be swapped, then it’s important to rank them so that you don’t make a bad deal and end up with something worse than what you started with. In other words, trade value lists are one of the things we humans have done the longest. Or at least, that’s what I like to tell myself to feel better when it’s 11:47 PM and I’m wondering whether I’d rather have four years of a shortstop or three years of a mid-rotation starter. Welcome to the 2026 FanGraphs Trade Value Series. Starting today and continuing through the end of the week, we’re releasing our list of the 50 most valuable players in baseball, taking player performance, age, and contract details into account. Dave Cameron, Kiley McDaniel, Craig Edwards, and Kevin Goldstein have all headlined this list before; this is my fifth year doing it on my own. Of course, I really ought to put “on my own” in quotation marks. I start building this list by gathering every input I can think of. Age, contract status, current statistics, projected future performance, Statcast data, pitch- and arsenal-level modeling, scouting reports – if it can be written down, I try to consider it in my first pass. I use all of those inputs to come up with an initial set of rankings, then refine those rankings by diving deeper into individual player comparisons. After I have things in relatively good order, I consult with the FanGraphs staff to clarify my thinking further and get new opinions on tough decisions. Everyone is a big help, but special thanks are due to Dan Szymborski for supplying the ZiPS projections, Sean Dolinar for his technical assistance, and Meg Rowley for patiently shepherding the project from a spreadsheet to the final product. Next, I reach out to sources on the team side. Here, I try to gather perspectives from organizations with different methodological leanings, budgets, goals, and places in the competitive cycle; basically, as many differing viewpoints as possible. But make no mistake: Despite all the help provided to me, at the end of the day, these rankings are my rankings. This is my subjective ranking of the 50 players in baseball who I think would fetch the most if their team traded them. It’s not a consensus list of which players teams value most, though there’s surely considerable overlap between my list and that one. There are players on the list who I’m higher on than the consensus, and vice versa; I’ll mention the largest disagreements in the individual write-ups to come. If I rank a player higher than the consensus, it doesn’t mean the consensus is wrong; it just means that I think the consensus is wrong. Throughout this exercise, I’m trying to answer the following question: Taking everything about each player into account, which ones would garner the highest trade offer, from any team, if every team viewed players the same way I do? That’s notably not the average value that each team would assign based on their own particular circumstances. In real world trades, there’s a highest bidder, a team most motivated to acquire a player’s services, and that’s the value I care about for this list. To give you an example from today’s honorable mentions, there are a lot of teams that wouldn’t trade for Zack Wheeler regardless of cost. Maybe they can’t afford his salary; maybe they aren’t competing soon enough for him to make sense for their rotation. Either way, it doesn’t matter, because you don’t need the full league to make a market. If 24 teams cry poor while the five biggest markets in the league engage in a bidding war, then what those 24 teams thought didn’t affect the outcome. That’s an important distinction. You can imagine looking at this list from the perspective of a small-market team, or a rebuilding team, or the Dodgers, and scratching your head at the order. The Rays wouldn’t trade for Aaron Judge (spoiler: he’s on the main part of the list). His salary is roughly half their payroll. For their part, the Mariners wouldn’t trade for Dillon Dingler (he’s also on the list); they already have an entrenched starter at catcher. But someone would trade for both of those guys if the price was right, and this list is about guessing at that price. 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Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO. 9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members. 10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features! We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it. A list of average aggregate preferences might look different. But again, that isn’t how trades work in the real world, so it’s not how I’m evaluating players for this series. I’m focusing on the highest offer a player might fetch, because that’s what determines their value in trade at the end of the day. As long as there’s no hard salary cap (ominous foreshadowing) and star players are in short supply, the best players on the market carry trade premium beyond what you’d expect from a linear accounting of value. We’ve seen that effect on the free agent market in recent years, and I took that into account in my thinking. I try to account for all real-world team preferences, in fact; teams prioritize the present over the future, care about current performance, and are willing to pay more for a win’s worth of hitting than a win’s worth of fielding. I think that most of these behaviors are rational, but even if teams had an irrational preference, I’d try to include it in my understanding here. Some general notes on the list. First, this is the second year I’m breaking it up into tiers. Grouping players this way both focuses my thinking and drives home a point that is perpetually difficult to make when creating lists: not every one-spot gap in the ordinal rankings means the same thing. Tiers are mostly made up of players who are close to each other in both style and value; the first and last players in a given tier are closer to each other in value than they are to the nearest players in neighboring tiers. The tiers will be demarcated in the table that appears at the end of each article in the series, and I’ll also refer to them as I explain my thinking about the players in each group. As I mention every year, 50 is just a number. That’s both true of age — 40 is also just a number, as I remind my wife when she needles me about it — and the number of players we put on this list. We made that decision a long time ago, and it was a wise one. There has to be some cutoff – there are more than 50 honorable mentions! – and 50 does a good job of getting all of the best players on the list without too much fluff towards the bottom. That said, cutting things off at 50 implies a bright-line distinction between the 50th and 51st guy on this list that doesn’t reflect reality. The players ranked from 40th to what would have been 58th are all quite close in my estimation. You could make an argument for many players who are just off the list replacing the last few names I ranked, and believe me, plenty of the people I talked to did just that. A few specific notes on this year’s list: I took a hard look at catcher valuation and ended up moving catchers down across the board as a result. I made this decision for two reasons. First, catchers are just volatile. Being the best catcher one year is no guarantee of keeping that spot 12 months in the future, as we see over and over again. Second, team behavior reflects that volatility. Catcher contracts tend to be less lucrative than deals given to similarly good players at different positions. That obviously matters for trade value, and I think that this year’s list more closely matches the reality on the ground. I’ll expand my thinking on this phenomenon in the individual capsules for relevant players. This year feels different than the past few years to me. There’s been more turnover at the top of the leaderboards than we’ve seen in quite a while, and that has huge implications for the generation of stars who have had a strong presence at the top of this list for the last half-decade. Think José Ramírez, whose name you’ll see later in this article: After averaging 6 WAR per season for the past five years, he’s having his worst season since 2019, and he’s 33. For young up-and-comers, intermittent struggles or slow starts are baked into the cake. For elite veterans, the present matters a ton, and any question about a guy’s production is a big negative in the trade value ledger. There’s more uncertainty about this group of stars than at any point when I’ve been compiling this list, and I adjusted my rankings accordingly. Finally, I generally tried to be cognizant of the current CBA negotiations, which at least put a question mark around how the 2027 season will develop. That matters most for players who are only under contract for this year and next, but no one with that little team control made the list. It also matters peripherally for players with only a few years of team control left, and there are fewer of those in the top 50 than in recent years; only two players in the top 40 are set to reach free agency before 2030. Finally, it matters for large contracts, and I shaded down on players whose contracts might be difficult to move while there’s uncertainty about how the new payroll landscape will shake out. Honestly, though, that’s a small effect; the guys on this list with large contracts are all stars, or they wouldn’t be on the list, and teams are a lot more willing to get creative about fitting contracts into their budget when the player they’re paying that money to is great. For the players below who appeared on last year’s list, you’ll see their 2025 rankings in parentheses after their name. I’ve also included a section of players who made the list last year, but who fell off and aren’t honorable mentions this year. This Friday at 10 AM ET, I’ll hold a chat so that I can take your questions on the full list. That’s a lot of words about the process of making this list, and there will be plenty more in the comments accompanying each group of ranked players. For now, though, let’s get to the honorable mentions. Departing the List, Not an Honorable Mention Spencer Strider (27) Francisco Lindor (39) Corey Seager (40) Jordan Westburg (46) Strider never got back to his pre-injury dominance, and he’s back on the 60-day IL. It’s a good reminder that you should never take pitcher health for granted, and that not everyone returns to their previous peak when coming back from injury. Westburg continues to produce when healthy – he’s played at a 3.5 WAR/600 pace in his career – but at this point, continued health seems less than likely. He just had a Tommy John procedure of his own, hasn’t played in 2026, and has never hit 450 plate appearances in a season. Lindor and Seager are good examples of the changing of the guard that I mentioned earlier. When they were playing like All-Stars, you could see the appeal, even given big, long-term deals; it’s hard to find 5-WAR players, regardless of salary. But with both of them having poor seasons, the equation changes completely. When there’s not much obvious present-day value, the long tail of the contract becomes meaningfully scarier. This is how most long contracts end – it just looks like we’re approaching that end more quickly for both guys than you might have expected a year ago. Injured Pitchers Garrett Crochet (17) Hunter Greene (29) Cole Ragans (HM) Spencer Schwellenbach (HM) Cade Horton Here’s a refresher on how I treat injured pitchers: I exclude them. No one would trade for a pitcher who is currently on the IL with a serious injury. The information asymmetry and range of outcomes are both too high. Even if they return to their prior form, how long will the ramp-up take? How long will they be rusty? How sparingly will they need to be used? This is the sort of trade that gets you sent out of town if it doesn’t work, and the upside generally isn’t commensurate with the risk, so injured hurlers just don’t carry the kind of value that gets you onto this list. Crochet and Greene in particular will be on next year’s list if they return at full strength. Their present circumstances are different — Crochet hasn’t started throwing yet, while Greene is already back in the majors — but in both cases, I left them off rather than try to figure out how their arm health would weigh into any trade discussions. Recent years bear this out well. Ragans and Schwellenbach were in last year’s “Injured Pitchers” grouping; Strider was in the previous edition. Almost no one who missed the list because they were injured has returned to prominence in time to claw their way back to the top; Shane McClanahan might be closest, but he missed two full years with injury and is going to be a free agent in short order, which kept him off the main section of this year’s 50. The point is that injured pitchers have at best unclear routes to delivering a big pile of value, and rather than try to parse the degree of the downgrade, I’m just excluding them. The Trade Value Series has a silly central premise – most of these guys won’t be traded anyway – but it’s especially silly for injured pitchers, and I had to draw the line somewhere. Stars on Big Deals Logan Webb (16) José Ramírez (19) Zack Wheeler (38) Byron Buxton (41) Mookie Betts (HM) Max Fried (HM) Matt Olson (HM) Dylan Cease Jesús Luzardo Ranger Suarez Here, you’re seeing some of the casualties of this year’s topsy-turviness. Webb and Ramírez have both had uncharacteristically bad starts to 2026, and both have missed time with injury. I expect both of them to bounce back, but “expected to bounce back” isn’t enough to crack the lofty heights of the top 50. Webb’s performance was so good that I could overlook the relatively short remaining years of team control in prior editions of the list, but that team control continues to wind down and now that he’s not a shoo-in top-three Cy Young type, the total package just doesn’t add up to a spot on the list for me. Ramírez’s case is similar; he’s having a down year and is currently on the IL, he’s 33, and he just signed a contract extension that keeps him around through 2032, when he’ll turn 40 during the season. He’s a great player, but the uncertainty around how much short-term juice he provides undermines the trade value case. The rest of the guys on here are similar versions of that. I like all of these players quite a lot. I’d be happy to trade for them if I were a contending team. I’d go out of my way to trade for them if they were available, even. “Not in the top 50” isn’t the same as “not valuable,” and obviously all of these guys would be great to have around. You know what you’re getting here, and for some teams, I imagine they’d be ahead of some of the younger, more cost-controlled players I prefer, but my preferences are ultimately what matter here. In what’s becoming an annual ritual, I’ll mention that Juan Soto isn’t ranked in the top 50, and also isn’t an honorable mention. He’s amazing, one of the best players in baseball, and he’ll be around for forever. But there isn’t really a market for that kind of contract. Only two teams could offer it: the one he’s playing for, and a Dodgers team that’s already miles past the fourth CBT threshold. Last year I described him as a Lamborghini, a luxury good rather than a trade chip. I’d love to have Soto on my team, and I can imagine that in a world where he did get traded, the Mets would eat enough salary to make that a possibility. But in the real world, he doesn’t make sense for this exercise. Catchers Will Smith (18) Alejandro Kirk (30) Adley Rutschman (32) William Contreras (33) Gabriel Moreno (HM) Hunter Goodman Carter Jensen Shea Langeliers As I mentioned in the introduction, I systematically lowered my evaluation of catcher trade value across the board this year. Smith and Kirk were on my initial versions of the list, and in fact remained on there until quite late in the process, but in the end, I decided they didn’t quite belong. It’s a matter of taste, really; I could easily imagine lists that put those two in the top 50 (in about the same place, I’d assume), but I feel strongly about my macro view on the catcher position and so rounded down accordingly. Rutschman and Contreras are each having solid seasons, but they’re both free agents after 2027, so there’s just not enough service time meat left on the bone to get them a spot. Goodman, Jensen, and Langeliers are all first-division starters at catcher who have a ways to go until free agency. They all have obvious upside, too. Goodman has hit well for two straight years, Jensen’s raw power makes him a logical successor to Salvador Perez, and Langeliers, while hardly an elite defender, hits enough that he’s on course for his second straight four-win season, which is nothing to sneeze at. Moreno has been right on the fringes of this list for years; he’s held back by availability as much as anything else. I just think that the bar is very high to stand out at catcher, and I specifically put my thumb on the scale in this direction in this year’s list, so here they are. Good Pitchers Nearing Free Agency George Kirby (23) Logan Gilbert (36) Shane McClanahan (HM) Joe Ryan (HM) José Soriano (HM) Reid Detmers I’d be happy with all of these guys in my October rotation, which is no small matter. If any of them are available at the trade deadline, I’m sure that the offers will be robust. They should be! The issue in each case is that they’re close enough to free agency that the amount of value coming back in deals for them probably wouldn’t make your eyes pop out as much as other guys we’ll be discussing this week. But pretty clearly, many playoff teams would be interested in all five. A Great Pitcher Really Near Free Agency Tarik Skubal (14) Last year, I used Skubal as a barometer of how far teams would go to get the best pitcher in baseball even when they wouldn’t get to retain his services for long. This year, I think that you could arguably put Skubal at the very end of the top 50 even with only half a year separating him from free agency, but there’s enough uncertainty around his quick return from injury that I erred on the side of caution and left him out. He’s obviously great, but he’s been very prone to home runs since coming back, and while that tends to be mean-reverting, it’s at least a reason to wonder. I don’t think this alters anything about his upcoming free agency; I just wouldn’t offer as much to get him for a few months as I would the guys on the list who will remain with their teams for many years. Promising Controllable Pitchers Eury Pérez (26) Bubba Chandler Kyle Harrison Gage Jump Davis Martin Troy Melton Max Meyer Gavin Williams Trey Yesavage I think all nine of these pitchers are playoff-rotation-worthy, and all of them are going to be around for years to come at salaries that won’t break the bank. That combination is quite valuable, because pitchers tend to miss time with injury — heck, Harrison is on the IL right now. It’s one thing to pay your elite starter a pretty penny, risking the deadweight loss if he gets hurt; it’s another entirely to do that with the middle of your rotation. As such, these guys’ value is tied up at least partially in how many years are left until they can offer their services on the open market. Another year of control on Pérez, and I’d have him on the main list. I had Jump, Melton, and Meyer on there at various points in the process, with my sources advocating for each of them to various degrees. Controllable Role Players Masyn Winn (45) Jacob Wilson (48) Wilyer Abreu (HM) Jonathan Aranda (HM) Michael Busch (HM) Cam Smith (HM) Xavier Edwards Otto Lopez Tyler Soderstrom Miguel Vargas Winn, Wilson, Abreu, Edwards, Smith, and Vargas all look like solid all-around players who I’d be happy to have on my team, but wouldn’t be devastated to miss out on. Each brings a different skill set to the table – contact hitting, defense, on-base skills, speed – but in each case, there are nits to pick that kept them from making the top 50 for me. Players like these form the backbone of championship teams, though they’re rarely the headliners. Their value in trade varies heavily based on which team might be acquiring them; if you don’t need a plus defensive shortstop, you won’t want Winn, for example. I like Winn and Vargas the best of this group, but I’d love to have them all on my team. Aranda, Busch, and Soderstrom are a step down the defensive spectrum from the above group, which puts more pressure on their performance at the plate. I’d be happy to have any of their bats in my lineup, but they’re not knocking down the door and forcing you to play them. I have all three above the “dead zone” where teams aren’t excited to get positionless bats in the lineup, but it’s a risk for each of them, because they’re more plus hitters than overwhelming ones. That just leaves Lopez, and while I’m pretty sure he’s in the middle of a career year, I did want to acknowledge that he’s in the middle of a career year. The odds that he keeps this form up are low – but man, he’s been good so far in 2026. Young Guys Sam Antonacci Franklin Arias Travis Bazzana Carson Benge Max Clark Leo De Vries Chase DeLauter Colt Emerson Seth Hernandez Walker Jenkins George Lombard Jr. Ryan Sloan Sal Stewart Eli Willits As is customary, I asked Eric Longenhagen for a list of prospects and young big leaguers who could crack the list next year if they continue at their current pace. This is a mixture of guys who are already in the majors but who I want to see for longer, and prospects who we think have a chance at huge impact in the near future. Not every one of these guys is playing lights out at the moment, but all of them have skills that give them a chance to hit the elite level of player you’ll see ranked in the coming days. They won’t all pan out. There’s plenty of risk here, which is why they aren’t higher. But if history is any precedent, four of five of these names will be on next year’s list, and one or two of them will be right up near the top. I’m not sure which of them it will be. If I were, they’d already be on the list. We think all of these guys have a good chance of being excellent in the big leagues, though, and the broader industry does too. Just Missed Maikel Garcia (HM) Iván Herrera (HM) Geraldo Perdomo (HM) Bryce Eldridge Jordan Walker All five of these guys spent plenty of time in my top 50. As you’ll see throughout the week, the bottom of the list is quite fungible, and I went back and forth on the very end of it quite a bit. The last cut was Walker, and while I love a top prospect making good on the hype years later, my uncertainty about how he’ll continue to get the ball in the air while avoiding strikeouts, combined with the fact that he’s got less team control than you think because of his age-21 debut, worked to push him off the list when it was all said and done. I started with Perdomo in the mid-30s and ended up moving him lower and lower as I moved through the process. I’m cognizant of my own bias towards well-rounded shortstops, though, and the people I checked my list with were consistently lower on him than I was, so he slid into the honorable mentions as I continued refining my thinking. He’s an awesome player, and when he’s hitting like he did in 2025, he’s surely deserving of a spot, but in my estimation, he’s more of an average offensive player in the long run, which left him just short. I’ll put Garcia in that same boat; he’s a great defender, but I didn’t feel strongly enough about his offensive potential to push him over the top. Eldridge and Herrera are both middle-of-the-order bats who will be on their respective teams for years to come. I’m treating both like DHs, with any defensive upside a bonus, even though the Cardinals are testing Herrera out behind the plate again; I don’t think he has the defensive chops to stay there, and I’d want to keep him fresh and in the lineup anyway, so DH (or first base) seems like the long-term play here. In any case, if you’re wondering why these good hitters with team control aren’t on the list, it’s not because I don’t like them; it’s because there are just so many great major leaguers. … We could do honorable mentions for days. There are more players here than I actually ranked on the trade value list. That said, if you’re looking for players who might actually get traded this deadline, Skubal is a speculative but fascinating name, and the Angels will be fielding calls on Soriano and Detmers. Past that, you’re looking at Casey Mize, Luis Arraez, and perhaps a sprinkling of Mets as the best available deadline options (plus one guy you’ll see on a list later today). But let’s call it for now, and get on to the main event. Next up, the first 10 players on this year’s rankings.