2026 BMW Championship odds, picks: Surprising predictions by model that's nailed 17 majors

This page may contain affiliate links. If you click and sign up, make a deposit, or place a wager, we may earn a commission at no additional cost to you. SportsLine's model simulated the BMW Championship 2026 10,000 times and revealed surprising picks for the second event in the 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs Aug 18, 2026 at 12:43 pm ET • 3 min read Imagn Images The 2026 FedEx Cup Playoffs continue on Thursday with the 2026 BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis, Mo. Scottie Scheffler didn't win any majors in 2026, but he was dominant in the opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship by eight strokes. He remains atop the points standings with plenty of room to spare, and is one of 50 golfers who advanced to the BMW Championship 2026. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you bet $5:Scheffler is the favorite at +300 (risk $100 to win $300) in the 2026 BMW Championship odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Other top contenders this week include Rory McIlroy (+1600) and Ludvig Aberg and Xander Schauffele, both at +1800. Before locking in any 2026 BMW Championship picks, be sure to see the 2026 BMW Championship predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.Paramount+ Premium is now included with every SportsLine membership! Watch the NFL on CBS, UFC, select PGA events, Champions League and more than 40,000 episodes and movies. Join right here to get both for one low price.SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, simulated every PGA Tour event 10,000 times and reveals golf betting picks that have a history of being extremely profitable. This same model has also nailed a whopping 17 majors entering the weekend, including the 2026 Masters -- its fifth Masters in a row -- as well as last year's PGA Championship and Open Championship. Anyone who has followed its sports betting picks could have seen massive returns on betting sites. Now that the 2026 BMW Championship field is set, the model simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.New to sports trading? Visit our Kalshi promo code review and get a $25 trading bonus for new users who trade $25+ with the Kalshi promo code CBSSPORTS:2026 BMW Championship predictions One major surprise the model is calling for: Ludvig Aberg, who is tied for the third-best odds at +1800, barely cracks the top 10. Aberg has recorded two straight top-10 finishes, but hadn't finished better than T17 in his prior five events. He did finish T2 at this event last year, though that was carried heavily by a second-round 63, while he shot higher than 70 in his other three rounds. Additionally, he's also winless this season and hasn't finished better than a share of third, so betting him to win at lower odds brings a lot of risk. See who else to fade here. Another surprise: The model is high on Tommy Fleetwood at +2000, saying he's a strong win contender and a value top-5 bet. He's been in contention virtually every week he's played, finishing in the top 25 13 times in his 17 events, with eight top-10s and four top-5s this year. He's one of the most accurate drivers on tour as well, a huge asset as players have to avoid the thick rough at Bellerive. See who else to pick here. How to make 2026 BMW Championship picksThe model is also targeting a massive longshot of around +3000 to make a strong run up the leaderboard. You can only see the model's picks here. Who will win the 2026 BMW Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Check out the 2026 BMW Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 17 golf majors, including three in 2025.2026 BMW Championship odds, fieldGet full 2026 BMW Championship picks, best bets and predictions here.(odds via FanDuel and subject to change)Scottie Scheffler +300Rory McIlroy +1600Xander Schauffele +1800Ludvig Åberg +1800Sam Burns +2000Cameron Young +2000Tommy Fleetwood +2000Matt Fitzpatrick +2200Chris Gotterup +2700Si Woo Kim +2700Hideki Matsuyama +3000Viktor Hovland +3000Patrick Cantlay +3000Wyndham Clark +3000Collin Morikawa +3500Justin Thomas +4000Jake Knapp +4000Russell Henley +4500Maverick McNealy +4500Kurt Kitayama +4500Tom Kim +4500Min Woo Lee +5000Michael Thorbjornsen +5000Ryan Gerard +5000J.J. Spaun +5500Adam Scott +6000Robert MacIntyre +6000Michael Brennan +6000Sungjae Im +6500Ben Griffin +6500Nicolai Højgaard +6500Justin Rose +7000Rickie Fowler +7000Alex Noren +7000Jacob Bridgeman +8000Kristoffer Reitan +8000Bud Cauley +8000Ryan Fox +10000Alex Smalley +10000Aaron Rai +10000Akshay Bhatia +10000Alex Fitzpatrick +10000Gary Woodland +10000Nico Echavarria +12500J.T. Poston +12500Eric Cole +12500Ryo Hisatsune +15000Sahith Theegala +17500Matt McCarty +22500Sepp Straka +22500