13-DAY COALITION COUNTDOWN: DA emerges as largest party in five Gauteng hubs, but ActionSA holds the key

Every single municipality across Gauteng – except for Midvaal, which the DA won outright – will need a coalition government. The DA and ANC are the only parties that can anchor any coalition, and, apart from a grand coalition between the two, ActionSA is vital to forming any majority.The DA is the largest party in all three metros and the two secondary cities (Emfuleni and Mogale City), but that doesn’t mean that it will be in government. The ANC and ActionSA could form majority coalitions but only with the help of other parties, replicating the existing unstable, multiparty coalitions across the province.In Johannesburg, the DA–ActionSA coalition would easily get over the line with the help of one more party, while the ANC would need ActionSA, the EFF and probably at least two other parties.ActionSA is in second place in Tshwane and big enough to form a majority coalition with the DA on its own. The ANC would need the help of ActionSA, the EFF and another party, such as MK or the SACP.ActionSA also holds the cards in Ekurhuleni: it could bring a majority to a DA–FF+ coalition or an ANC–EFF coalition.Compared with 2021, most of these options appear to be more stable, with less need to include small parties. Over the last five years, Johannesburg governments have needed between eight and 10 coalition partners; now one could be formed with just three.ActionSA will also enjoy kingmaker status in Mogale City if the DA and ANC cannot come to terms. Once again, the DA has a slightly easier job of building a coalition than the ANC, and a DA–FF+–ActionSA coalition would hold a majority, while the ANC would need ActionSA, the EFF and another one or two partners. Emfuleni is a slightly different challenge. The DA stunned the ANC by winning 27 wards from it, including most of Evaton and Sebokeng. With its traditional coalition partner the FF+, the DA would need just four more seats for a majority. These would almost certainly have to come from ActionSA, as most of the smaller parties are unpalatable to the DA. These include the SACP, the PAC, the PA and ATM.The ANC would have to convince nearly every other party to join a very shaky coalition with more than 10 partners. Emfuleni is the Gauteng municipality where a DA–ANC coalition could solve the most problems, and where the DA holds three-quarters of the ward seats. DM